Frank M. Bass
A New Product Growth For Model Consumer Durables
Frank M.Bass. 1969. (View Paper → )
"A growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers. A behavioural rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behaviour. The model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data. A long-range forecast is developed for the sales of colour television sets."
The Bass Diffusion Model is a vital tool for product managers, offering insights into how and when a product will be adopted by the market. Its predictions enable:
- Effective marketing strategies, targeting the right customers at the right time.
- Informed resource planning based on sales peaks and market saturation.
- Risk mitigation during new product launches.
- Strategic product lifecycle management, ensuring the product evolves as adoption slows.
By incorporating the Bass Diffusion Model, product managers can make data-driven decisions, optimize marketing efforts, and align their strategies with consumer behavior patterns, ultimately leading to more successful product launches and sustained growth.