Diffusion of Innovations

Diffusion of Innovations

Author

Everett M. Rogers

Year
1962
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Review

Have you heard of "early adopters" or the "late majority"? These terms originated in this book, which explores how innovations spread through society. The author excels at summarizing and referencing pioneering research on the topic. Rogers demonstrates the robustness of these frameworks by showing their consistent appearance in studies of innovation diffusion across various industries and circumstances. Read the book with a specific product or innovation in mind, and I'm confident you'll have several epiphanies about ways to accelerate adoption.

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Key Takeaways

The 20% that gave me 80% of the value.

Most innovations and ideas diffuse at a disappointingly slow rate (they don’t sell themselves). Having a foundational knowledge of how innovations diffuse across society is the key to helping us speed up adoption. Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through channels over time among the members of a social system.

The innovation-decision process is essentially an information-seeking and information-processing activity in which an individual is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of the innovation.

  • What is the innovation? How does it work? Why does it work? What are the innovation's consequences? What will its advantages and disadvantages be in my situation?

The main elements in the diffusion of new ideas: An [innovation] that is communicated through certain [channels] over [time] among the members of a [social system].

The characteristics of an innovation, as perceived by the members of a social system, determine its rate of adoption. The five most important attributes of innovations are:

  • Relative advantage - is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes (economic, prestige, convenience, satisfaction, etc).
  • Compatibility - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters.
  • Complexity - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use.
  • Trialability - the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis.
  • Observability - the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others.
Innovations that are perceived by individuals as having greater relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, and observability and less complexity will be adopted more rapidly than other innovations.

Re-invention is when an innovation is changed or modified by a user in the process of adoption/implementation.

Communication channels impact the rate of adoption. Mass media is good at getting the word out and increasing awareness. Interpersonal channels are more effective in forming and changing attitudes toward a new idea and influencing adoption decisions. Evaluations of peers who have adopted the innovation are powerful. Heterophily (how different people are) impacts how well and how often people communicate and the speed and nature of diffusion.

Diffusion happens over time.

The innovation-decision process is a 5 step process decision makers move through: Knowledge, Persuasion, Decision, Implementation, and Confirmation.

  • Knowledge - learn of the innovation’s existence and function
  • Persuasion - forms a favourable or unfavourable attitude toward the innovation
  • Decision - engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject the innovation
  • Implementation - put an innovation into use (Re-invention can occur at this stage too)
  • Confirmation - seeks reinforcement of the prior innovation-decision

Actors seek information throughout the process to decrease uncertainty about an innovation’s expected consequences.

  • Innovativeness is the relative position of an actor in the adoption cycle - there are five categories: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards.
  • When the # of individuals adopting a new idea is plotted on a cumulative frequency basis over time the distribution is an S-shaped curve. Only a few individuals adopt at first (the innovators). The diffusion curve begins to climb, as more and more individuals adopt in each succeeding time period. Eventually, the trajectory levels off, as fewer and fewer individuals remain who have not yet adopted the innovation.
  • The S-shaped diffusion curve “takes off” at about 10 to 20 percent adoption, when interpersonal networks become activated so that a critical mass of adopters begin using an innovation
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The rate of adoption is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of a social system.

A social system is a set of interrelated units engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goal. Their structure can facilitate or impede the diffusion of innovations in the system. The diffusion of innovations is a very social process that involves interpersonal communication relationships, even more than a technical matter.

  • Social norms: How compatible an innovation is with the values, beliefs, and past experiences of individuals in the social system is important.
  • How adopters view a change agent affects their willingness to adopt new ideas. More effective communication occurs with those who are more similar. If a change agent is more technically competent that difference could lead to ineffective communication as the two individuals do not speak the same language.
  • The most innovative member of a system is very often perceived as a deviant from the social system and is accorded a status of low credibility by the average members of the system.
  • Opinion leadership is the degree to which an individual is able to influence other individuals’ attitudes - it is earned and maintained by the individual’s technical competence, social accessibility, and conformity to the system’s norms. They often have a unique and influential position in their system’s communication structure: at the centre of interpersonal communication networks.
  • Unfortunately, those individuals who most need the help provided by the change agent are least likely to accept it.
  • Innovation-decisions can be optional, collective or authority-led / top-down. The fastest rate of adoption of innovations stems from authority decisions.
  • Innovation-decisions can be contingent on prior decisions.
  • The innovation-decision period is the length of time required to pass through the innovation-decision process. Some people require many years to adopt an innovation - others move rapidly from knowledge to implementation
Most individuals do not evaluate an innovation on the basis of scientific studies of its consequences, although such objective evaluations are not entirely irrelevant, especially to the very first individuals who adopt. Instead, most people depend mainly upon a subjective evaluation of an innovation that is conveyed to them from other individuals.
“It is as unthinkable to study diffusion without some knowledge of the social structures in which potential adopters are located as it is to study blood circulation without adequate knowledge of the veins and arteries.” Katz (1961)
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Deep Summary

Longer form notes, typically condensed, reworded and de-duplicated.

Chapter 1: Elements of Diffusion

Most innovations and ideas diffuse at a disappointingly slow rate (they don’t sell themselves). Having a foundational knowledge of how innovations diffuse across society is the key to helping us speed up adoption.

💡

The QWERTY keyboard layout was designed to slow down the keystrokes of typewriters and protect typewriters from jamming. The Dvorak keyboard was derived from time-and-motion studies to create a much more efficient keyboard arrangement. Almost no one has adopted the Dvorak keyboard.

Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through channels over time among the members of a social system.

Communication is a two-way process of creating and sharing information, in order to reach a mutual understanding (although it can lead to divergence and convergence). Innovative ideas are somewhat new, and that creates degree of uncertainty and perceived risk. The innovation-decision process is essentially an information-seeking and information-processing activity in which an individual is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of the innovation.

  • What is the innovation? How does it work? Why does it work? What are the innovation's consequences? What will its advantages and disadvantages be in my situation?

The main elements in the diffusion of new ideas are: An [innovation] that is communicated through certain [channels] over [time] among the members of a [social system].

The characteristics of an innovation, as perceived by the members of a social system, determine its rate of adoption.The five most important attributes of innovations are:

  • Relative advantage - is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes (economic, prestige, convenience, satisfaction, etc)
  • Compatibility - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters
  • Complexity - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use.
  • Trialability - the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis.
  • Observability - the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others.
Innovations that are perceived by individuals as having greater relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, and observability and less complexity will be adopted more rapidly than other innovations.
💡

Ryan and Gross (1943) found that every one of their Iowa farmer respondents adopted hybrid seed corn by first trying it on a partial basis.

Re-invention is when an innovation is changed or modified by a user in the process of adoption/implementation.

Communication channels impact the rate of adoption. Mass media is good at getting the word out and increasing awareness. Interpersonal channels are more effective in forming and changing attitudes toward a new idea and influencing adoption decisions. Evaluations of peers who have adopted the innovation are powerful. Heterophily (how different people are) impacts how well and how often people communicate and the speed and nature of diffusion.

Diffusion happens over time.

The innovation-decision process is a 5 step process decision makers move through: Knowledge, Persuasion, Decision, Implementation, and Confirmation.

  • Knowledge - learn of the innovation’s existence and function
  • Persuasion - forms a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward the innovation
  • Decision - engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject the innovation
  • Implementation - put an innovation into use (Re-invention can occur at this stage too)
  • Confirmation - seeks reinforcement of the prior innovation-decision

Actors seek information throughout the process to decrease uncertainty about an innovation’s expected consequences.

  • Innovativeness is the relative position of an actor in the adoption cycle - there are five categories: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards.
  • When the # of individuals adopting a new idea is plotted on a cumulative frequency basis over time the distribution is an S-shaped curve. Only a few individuals adopt at first (the innovators). The diffusion curve begins to climb, as more and more individuals adopt in each succeeding time period. Eventually, the trajectory levels off, as fewer and fewer individuals remain who have not yet adopted the innovation.
  • The S-shaped diffusion curve “takes off” at about 10 to 20 percent adoption, when interpersonal networks become activated so that a critical mass of adopters begin using an innovation
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The rate of adoption is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of a social system.

A social system is a set of interrelated units engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goal. Their structure can facilitate or impede the diffusion of innovations in the system. The diffusion of innovations is a very social process that involves interpersonal communication relationships, even more than a technical matter.

  • Social norms: How compatible an innovation is with the values, beliefs, and past experiences of individuals in the social system is important.
  • How adopters view a change agent affects their willingness to adopt new ideas. More effective communication occurs with those who are more similar. If a change agent is more technically competent that difference could lead to ineffective communication as the two individuals do not speak the same language.
  • The most innovative member of a system is very often perceived as a deviant from the social system and is accorded a status of low credibility by the average members of the system.
  • Opinion leadership is the degree to which an individual is able to influence other individuals’ attitudes - it is earned and maintained by the individual’s technical competence, social accessibility, and conformity to the system’s norms. They often have a unique and influential position in their system’s communication structure: at the centre of interpersonal communication networks.
  • Unfortunately, those individuals who most need the help provided by the change agent are least likely to accept it.
  • Innovation-decisions can be optional, collective or authority-led / top-down. The fastest rate of adoption of innovations stems from authority decisions.
  • Innovation-decisions can be contingent on prior decisions.
  • The innovation-decision period is the length of time required to pass through the innovation-decision process. Some people require many years to adopt an innovation - others move rapidly from knowledge to implementation
Most individuals do not evaluate an innovation on the basis of scientific studies of its consequences, although such objective evaluations are not entirely irrelevant, especially to the very first individuals who adopt. Instead, most people depend mainly upon a subjective evaluation of an innovation that is conveyed to them from other individuals.
“It is as unthinkable to study diffusion without some knowledge of the social structures in which potential adopters are located as it is to study blood circulation without adequate knowledge of the veins and arteries.” Katz (1961)
🌽

Ryan and Gross’s (1943) study of the diffusion of hybrid seed corn in Iowa is the most influential diffusion study of all time, despite the 5,200-plus diffusion investigations conducted since this pioneering study.

Chapter 2: A History of Diffusion Research

Varied approaches to diffusion research has uncovered remarkably similar findings (e.g. S-curves).

Tarde observed that the rate of adoption of a new idea usually followed an S-shaped curve over time - he recognised the takeoff in the S-shaped curve of adoption begins to occur when the opinion leaders in a system use a new idea. Tarde’s key word, “imitation,” implies that an individual learns about an innovation by copying someone else’s adoption of the innovation, implying that diffusion is a social process of interpersonal communication networks. Tarde proposed as one of his “laws of imitation” that the more similar an innovation is to ideas that have already been accepted, the more likely the innovation will be adopted.

Paul Mort (1953) found a considerable time lag was required for the adoption of educational innovations - the average American school lags 25 years behind best practice.

Diffusion networks. In the drug diffusion study by James S. Coleman and colleagues (1966), each respondent was asked to name the other medical doctors who were his best friends.

Eight main types of diffusion research have been identified:

  1. Earliness of awareness about innovations
  2. Adoption rates of various innovations within a social system
  3. Innovativeness of individuals or organizations
  4. Opinion leadership and its influence
  5. Diffusion networks and their structures
  6. Comparative adoption rates across different social systems
  7. Usage patterns of communication channels
  8. Consequences and impacts of innovation adoption

Chapter 3: Contributions and Criticisms of Diffusion Research

  • The diffusion model is a conceptual paradigm with relevance for many disciplines.
  • Be wary, diffusion research is often funded by change agencies who have a pro-innovation bias.
  • Survivorship bias in diffusion research is important too - the rate of adoption of successful innovations is more easily studied than failures. Typical research gathers data from adopters after the innovation has diffused widely by asking respondents to look backward in time.
  • Key criticisms of diffusion research include:
    • Pro-innovation bias: Assuming all innovations should be widely and rapidly adopted
    • Individual-blame bias: Faulting individuals rather than systems for problems
    • Recall issues: Inaccuracies in respondents' adoption timeline memories
    • Inequality concerns: Innovation spread often widens socioeconomic gaps

Chapter 4: The Generation of Innovations

The Innovation-Development Process

  1. Recognising a problem or need - often the stimulus to R&D activity
  2. Basic and applied research - Lead users often develop and prototype innovations before finding a manufacturer. Users have important information to contribute to innovation-development. The lead user concept is embedded in 3M’s new product idea process.
  3. Development - putting a new idea into a form that is expected to meet the needs of an audience of potential adopters.
    • In reality it’s hard to separate development from research - but they’re separate steps here
    • The developer must anticipate the problems of the ultimate adopters.
    • Skunkworks aim to remove bureaucracy helping the development of technological innovations. Most organisations aren’t flexible enough to nurture innovation.
  4. Commercialisation - the production, manufacturing, packaging, marketing, and distribution of a product. When a technology becomes a product that is sold in the marketplace. Often resource intensive and requires some storytelling and selling over an extended period of time.
    • Often two or more interrelated innovations are packaged together to facilitate diffusion
  5. Diffusion and Adoption - the decision to begin diffusing an innovation to potential adopters.
    • Clinical trials evaluate the effects of an innovation under real-life conditions, as a basis for making a go/no-go decision as to the diffusion of the innovation.
  6. Consequences - the changes that occur to an individual or to a social system as as a result of adoption or rejection of an innovation.

Technological determinism is the belief that technology causes changes in society. Social determinism or the social construction of technology argues instead that technology is shaped by social factors. Technology is a product of society, and is influenced by the norms and values of the social system.

Chapter 5: The Innovation-Decision Process

One must learn by doing the thing, for though you think you know it, you have no certainty until you try. Sophocles, 400 B.C.

Decisions aren’t made about innovations instantaneously - there’s a process that occurs over time and that has different stages. They were conceptualised by Ryan and Gross (1943) in the Iowa seed corn study.

Stages in the Innovation-Decision Process:

  1. Knowledge: Recall of information → Comprehension of messages → Knowledge or skill for effective adoption
  2. Persuasion: Liking the innovation → Discussion with others → Acceptance of the innovation message → Formation of positive image → Support from the system
  3. Decision: Intention to seek more information → Intention to try the innovation
  4. Implementation: Acquisition of additional information → Regular use of the innovation → Continued use of the innovation
  5. Confirmation: Recognition of benefits → Integration into routine → Promotion to other
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The innovation-decision process is essentially an information-seeking and information-processing activity in which an individual is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of an innovation.

  • What is the innovation
  • How does it work?
  • Why does it work?

Generalisations about ‘Early Knowers’ vs ‘Late Knowers’ of Innovations. Early knowers….

  • have more education
  • have higher social status
  • have more exposure to mass media channels of communication
  • have more exposure to interpersonal channels
  • have more contact with change agents
  • have more social participation
  • are more cosmopolite

Earlier knowers are not necessarily earlier in adopting new ideas (knowing isn’t using). Most people know of many innovations that they have not adopted.

The knowledge stage is about knowing - the persuasion stage is about feeling.

At the persuasion stage individuals form an attitude toward the innovation- typically aligned to their pre-disposed beliefs. They become more involved, they seek information, decides what messages are credible, and decides how to interpret the information they receive.Social reinforcement from others can change their attitude toward the innovation. Mass media can also provide reinforcement. They seek innovation evaluation information that reduces uncertainty about an the expected consequences

What are the innovation’s advantages and disadvantages in my situation?

The decision stage is when an individual (or decision-making unit) engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject.

One way to reduce the inherent uncertainty about the consequences of adoption is to try it out on a partial basis. Most individuals do not adopt an innovation without first trying it on a probationary basis to determine its usefulness in their own situation.

Some innovations cannot be divided for trial and so they must be adopted or rejected in toto. Innovations that can be divided for trial are generally adopted more rapidly.

Passive rejection consists of never really considering the use of the innovation.

The Implementation Stage occurs when a decision maker puts an innovation to use.

  • Where can I obtain the innovation?
  • How do I use it? What operational problems am I likely to encounter, and how can I solve them?

Re-Invention is the degree to which an innovation is changed or modified by a user in the process of its adoption and implementation.

  • Re-invention occurs at the implementation stage for many innovations and adopters
  • A higher degree of re-invention leads to a faster rate of adoption of an innovation.
  • A higher degree of re-invention leads to a higher degree of sustainability of an innovation.

There are many reasons for re-invention: misunderstanding, simplification, application changes, applying to different problems, a change in packaging or bundling, localisation or local branding.

Re-invention may be more frequent later in the diffusion process for an innovation, as later adopters profit from the experiences gained by earlier adopters (Hays, 1996a).

The Confirmation Stage a decision to adopt or reject a new idea is often not the terminal stage in the innovation-decision process. Decision makers seek reinforcement for the innovation-decision already made. They seek to avoid a state of dissonance or to reduce it if it occurs.

Discontinuance can end in replacement or disenchantment:

  • Replacement rejects an idea in order to adopt a better idea that supersedes it.
  • Disenchantment is a rejection as a result of dissatisfaction with its performance.

Innovation-Decision Process compared to Porchaska's Stages-of-Change:

  1. Knowledge → Precontemplation - An individual becomes aware of a problem and starts considering how to overcome it.
  2. Persuasion → Contemplation- The individual seriously thinks about overcoming the problem but hasn't committed to action yet.
  3. Decision → Preparation - The individual intends to take action soon but hasn't done so yet.
  4. Implementation → Action - The individual changes their behavior to address the problem.
  5. Confirmation → Maintenance - The individual continues and reinforces the behavior change they've made.

Communication Channels

  • Mass media channels are relatively more important at the knowledge stage, and interpersonal channels are relatively more important at the persuasion stage in the innovation-decision process
  • Cosmopolite channels are relatively more important at the knowledge stage, and localite channels are relatively more important at the persuasion stage.
    • Cosmopolite channels link an individual with sources outside their social system
  • Interpersonal channels may be either local or cosmopolite, while mass media channels are almost entirely cosmopolite.

The Bass Diffusion Model

The Bass model predicts innovation adoption through mass media and interpersonal influences. Early adopters are primarily influenced by media, while later adopters are more affected by interpersonal channels. This creates an S-shaped cumulative adoption curve over time.

The model forecasts total adoptions in future periods based on pilot data or analogous products. It considers the market in aggregate, predicting overall adoption numbers rather than individual decisions.

Key elements are: media-driven adopters, interpersonal channel adopters, and market potential. The model shows adopter numbers over time, with the inflection point at mean adoption time being crucial for predictions.

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Mass media channels are relatively more important than interpersonal channels for earlier adopters than for later adopters.

Cosmopolite channels are relatively more important than localite channels for earlier adopters than for later adopters.

The rate of awareness-knowledge for an innovation is more rapid than its rate of adoption.

Earlier adopters have a shorter innovation-decision period than do later adopters.

Chapter 6: Attributes of Innovations and Their Rate of Adoption

The rate of adoption refers to the relative speed at which an innovation is adopted within a social system.

Five key attributes influence the rate of adoption:

  • Relative advantage: The degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than its predecessor (has a positive effect).
  • Compatibility: How consistent the innovation is with existing values, experiences, and needs of potential adopters (has a positive effect).
  • Complexity: The perceived difficulty in understanding and using the innovation (has a negative effect).
  • Trialability: The extent to which an innovation can be experimented with on a limited basis (has a positive effect).
  • Observability: How visible the results of an innovation are to others (has a positive effect).

Diffusion scholars have found relative advantage to be one of the strongest predictors of an innovation’s rate of adoption. “Relative advantage” is a ratio of the expected benefits and the costs of adoption of an innovation.

Potential adopters want to know the degree to which a new idea is better than an existing practice. So relative advantage is often an important part of message content about an innovation. The exchange of such innovation information among peers lies at the heart of the diffusion process.

Overadoption is when experts feel that a decision maker adopts but should reject. It could be due to insufficient knowledge, a different prediction of consequences, or status-related.

Preventive innovations are adopted to prevent future unwanted events - they diffuse more slowly than incremental innovations.

Change agents often overlook indigenous knowledge systems, which are important to help spread innovations.

Don’t think of these attributes as absolute - instead what matters is how individuals perceive them.

Change agents must understand how potential adopters perceive new ideas as the perceptions are critical in shaping the diffusion process.

Other less important factors that influence adoption rate:

  • The nature of communication channels diffusing the innovation at various stages
  • The nature of the social system
  • The extent of change agents' efforts in diffusing the innovation

Approaches to help predict the rate of adoption:

  • Extrapolate the rate of adoption from past similar innovations
  • Describe an innovation to potential adopters, and determine its perceived attributes so as to predict its forthcoming rate of adoption.
  • Investigate the acceptability of an innovation in pre-diffusion stages, e.g. when it’s being test-marketed.
One motivation for many individuals to adopt an innovation is the desire to gain social status. Gabriel Tarde (1903) observed that status seeking was a main reason for imitating the innovation behaviour of others.

Incentives can take various forms. Each type aims to influence adoption rates differently, targeting either individuals or systems, with rewards or penalties, delivered at different times.

  • Adopter vs diffuser incentives
  • Individual vs system incentives
  • Positive vs negative incentives
  • Monetary vs nonmonetary incentives
  • Immediate vs delayed incentives

Incentives can boost early adoption rates, but may have drawbacks. For example, the U.S. government offered tax rebates for solar heating in the 1970s, but discontinued them after reaching 5-10% adoption due to high costs. While incentives increase adoption rates and can improve socioeconomic equality, they may lead to lower-quality adoption decisions and reduced long-term sustainability.

Compatibility refers to how well an innovation aligns with existing values, experiences, and needs of potential adopters. More compatible ideas are less uncertain and feel more familiar. Innovations can be compatible or incompatible with sociocultural values, previous ideas, or client needs. Compatibility with cultural values is crucial; incompatibility can hinder adoption. Compatibility with previous ideas can affect adoption speed. Highly compatible innovations may serve as stepping stones for less compatible ones later.

Meeting felt needs indicates compatibility. Change agents must empathise with clients to accurately assess needs. Compatibility positively relates to adoption rate, though it may be less influential than relative advantage.

Technology clusters, where innovations are perceived as interrelated, can be promoted together. An innovation's name can affect its perceived compatibility and adoption rate.

Positioning research helps find an ideal niche for innovations based on their relation to existing ideas and unique characteristics. This approach views innovation characteristics as dynamic. Acceptability research guides R&D by investigating ideal innovation attributes.

Observability is the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others. Some ideas are easily observed and communicated to other people, whereas other innovations are difficult to observe or to describe to others.

Chapter 7 Innovativeness and Adopter Categories

Adopter categories are classifications of social system members based on innovativeness, which is the degree to which an individual or unit adopts new ideas earlier than others in the system. There are standard five adopter categories widely used in diffusion research and their applications.

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The mean and standard deviation are used to divide a normal adopter distribution into five categories. The chart shows this distribution:

  • Innovators First 2.5%, more than two standard deviations before the mean
  • Early Adopters: Next 13.5%, between one and two standard deviations before the mean
  • Early Majority: Next 34%, up to one standard deviation before the mean
  • Late Majority: Next 34%, up to one standard deviation after the mean
  • Laggards: Last 16%, more than one standard deviation after the mean

Adopter distributions tend to follow an S-shaped curve over time and approach normality. The continuum of innovativeness is partitioned into five categories based on the mean and standard deviation of a normal distribution:

  • Innovators: Venturesome Innovators are the first to adopt new ideas, driven by a keen interest in novel concepts. They often have substantial financial resources and technical knowledge, allowing them to absorb potential losses from unprofitable innovations. Innovators play a crucial gatekeeping role, introducing new ideas into the system from external sources. While they may not always be respected locally, their risk-taking nature and cosmopolite social relationships make them vital to the diffusion process.
  • Early Adopters: Respect Early adopters are highly respected members of the local social system, serving as opinion leaders and role models. They are sought after for advice on innovations and play a crucial role in speeding up the diffusion process. By making judicious innovation decisions, they maintain their central position in communication networks and help trigger the critical mass for adoption.
  • Early Majority: Deliberate The early majority adopt new ideas just before the average system member. They are an important link in the diffusion process, providing interconnectedness in interpersonal networks. While they interact frequently with peers, they rarely hold opinion leadership positions. The early majority deliberate carefully before adopting, following with willingness but seldom leading.
  • Late Majority: Skeptical The late majority approach innovations with skepticism, adopting new ideas just after the average system member. Their adoption is often driven by economic necessity and peer pressure. They require most uncertainty to be removed before feeling safe to adopt, and system norms must strongly favour an innovation to convince them.
  • Laggards: Traditional Laggards are the last to adopt innovations in a social system, possessing almost no opinion leadership. They are often isolated in social networks and make decisions based on past experiences. While their resistance may be rational due to limited resources, the term "laggard" can carry negative connotations. It's important to recognise that their late adoption may be more a result of systemic factors than personal fault.

Characteristics of Earlier Adopters:

  • Socioeconomic Status: More years of formal education, higher literacy rates, higher social status, greater upward social mobility, larger-sized units (farms, companies, schools, etc.).
  • Personality Variables: Greater empathy, less dogmatism, greater ability to deal with abstractions, greater rationality, greater intelligence, more favourable attitude toward change, greater ability to cope with uncertainty and risk, more favourable attitude toward science, less fatalism and greater self-efficacy, higher aspirations for education and occupations.
  • Communication Behaviour: More social participation, more interconnected in interpersonal networks, more cosmopolite, more contact with change agents, greater exposure to mass media, greater exposure to interpersonal communication channels, more active information seeking, greater knowledge of innovations, higher degree of opinion leadership.

The distinctive characteristics of the the adopter categories allows for audience segmentation, and requires the use of different communication channels and/or messaging to reach each sub-audience effectively.

Chapter 8: Diffusion Networks

The two-step flow hypothesis suggests that communication messages flow from media sources to opinion leaders, who then pass them on to followers. This model has been widely tested in diffusion studies.

Key points about communication flow:

  • Mass media channels primarily create knowledge
  • Interpersonal networks are more important for persuasion
  • Homophily (similarity between communicators) can act as a barrier to diffusion
  • Heterophilous links, or "bridges", are important for conveying information about innovations

Characteristics of opinion leaders:

  • Greater exposure to mass media
  • More cosmopolitan
  • Greater contact with change agents
  • Higher social participation
  • Higher socioeconomic status

The critical mass is the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that further adoption becomes self-sustaining. This concept is crucial for interactive innovations, where utility increases with each additional adopter.

Individual thresholds for adoption vary, explaining the S-shaped diffusion curve. Innovators have low thresholds, while later adopters require more peers to adopt before they do.

Strategies for reaching critical mass:

  • Target highly-respected individuals for initial adoption
  • Shape perceptions of the innovation (e.g., implying adoption is inevitable or desirable)

Chapter 9: The Change Agent

Change agents implement interventions to influence behavior change and produce specific outcomes. They face challenges of social marginality and information overload.

Seven roles can be identified for the change agent in the process of introducing an innovation in a client system:

  1. Develop a need for change - help clients recognise the need to alter behaviour
  2. Establish an information exchange relationship - build rapport and credibility with clients
  3. Diagnose problems - analyse clients' issues from their perspective
  4. Create an intent to change - motivate clients' interest in the innovation
  5. Translate intent into action - influence behaviour change through recommendations
  6. Stabilise adoption - reinforce new behaviours to prevent discontinuance
  7. Achieve a terminal relationship - develop clients' self-reliance and ability to be their own change agents

Factors contributing to a change agent's success include:

  • Extent of effort in contacting clients
  • Client-oriented approach
  • Compatibility with clients' needs
  • Empathy and homophily with clients
  • Credibility in clients' eyes
  • Working through opinion leaders
  • Enhancing clients' ability to evaluate innovations

Diffusion systems can be categorised as centralised (top-down, expert-controlled) or decentralised (client-controlled, based on local experimentation). Decentralised systems facilitate greater re-invention and horizontal network diffusion. Hybrid systems, which combine elements of both approaches, are also feasible.

Chapter 10: Innovation in Organisations

Organisations are stable systems where individuals work together towards common goals through hierarchies and division of labour. While organisational behaviour is generally predictable, innovation is an ongoing process.

Key findings on organisational innovation:

  • Larger organisations tend to be more innovative
  • Organisational structure variables affect innovation differently during initiation vs implementation
  • Innovation champions contribute significantly to an innovation's success

The innovation process in organisations consists of two main subprocesses:

  1. Initiation
    • Agenda-setting: Defining a problem that creates a need for innovation
    • Matching: Fitting a problem with an innovation
  2. Implementation
    • Redefining/restructuring: Adapting the innovation and organisation to each other
    • Clarifying: Widespread use clarifies the innovation's meaning
    • Routinising: Innovation becomes part of regular activities

Sustainability of an innovation is more likely with widespread participation, re-invention, and the involvement of an innovation champion.

Chapter 11: Consequences of Innovations

Consequences are the changes that occur to an individual or social system as a result of adopting or rejecting an innovation. Despite their importance, consequences have been inadequately studied due to:

  • Overemphasis on adoption, assuming positive outcomes
  • Inappropriate research methods
  • Difficulty in measuring consequences

Consequences are classified as:

  1. Desirable vs. Undesirable
  2. Direct vs. Indirect
  3. Anticipated vs. Unanticipated

It's important to note that innovations often cause both positive and negative consequences, and these effects usually cannot be separated.

The undesirable, indirect, and unanticipated consequences of an innovation typically occur together, as do the desirable, direct, and anticipated consequences.

An innovation has three intrinsic elements:

  1. Form: Physical appearance and substance
  2. Function: Contribution to way of life
  3. Meaning: Subjective perception by system members

Change agents can more easily anticipate an innovation's form and function than its meaning for clients.

The consequences of innovation diffusion often widen socioeconomic gaps between early and late adopters, and between those of high and low socioeconomic status. However, with special efforts, it's possible to narrow or maintain these gaps.