Diffusion of Innovations · Everett M Rogers · 1962
The concept of ‘early adopters’ and the ‘late majority’ were coined and popularised by this book, which explores how innovations spread through society. I recommend reading it with a specific product or innovation in mind, as I’m confident you'll have several epiphanies about ways to accelerate adoption.
Key Highlights
Most innovations and ideas diffuse at a disappointingly slow rate - they don’t sell themselves. Having a foundational knowledge of how innovations diffuse across society is the key to helping us speed up adoption. Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through channels over time, among the members of a social system.
The innovation-decision process is essentially an information-seeking and information-processing activity in which an individual is motivated to reduce uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of the innovation. It’s what you go through when you’re deciding whether or not to adopt an innovation.
- What is the innovation? How does it work? Why does it work? What are the innovation's consequences? What will its advantages and disadvantages be in my situation?
Definition of Innovation Diffusion: An [innovation] that is communicated through certain [channels] over [time] among the members of a [social system].
The characteristics of an innovation, as perceived by the members of a social system, determine its rate of adoption. The five most important attributes of innovations are:
- Relative advantage - is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes (economic, prestige, convenience, satisfaction, etc).
- Compatibility - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters.
- Complexity - the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use.
- Trialability - the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis.
- Observability - the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others.
Innovations that are perceived by individuals as having greater relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, and observability and less complexity will be adopted more rapidly than other innovations.
Re-invention is when an innovation is changed or modified by a user in the process of adoption/implementation.
Communication channels impact the rate of adoption. Mass media is good at getting the word out and increasing awareness. Interpersonal channels are more effective in forming and changing attitudes toward a new idea and influencing adoption decisions. Evaluations of peers who have adopted the innovation are powerful. Heterophily (how different people are) impacts how well and how often people communicate and the speed and nature of diffusion.
Diffusion happens over time.
The innovation-decision process is a 5 step process decision makers move through:
- Knowledge - learn of the innovation’s existence and function
- Persuasion - forms a favourable or unfavourable attitude toward the innovation
- Decision - engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject the innovation
- Implementation - put an innovation into use (Re-invention can occur at this stage too)
- Confirmation - seeks reinforcement of the prior innovation-decision
Actors seek information throughout the process to decrease uncertainty about an innovation’s expected consequences.
- Innovativeness is the relative position of an actor in the adoption cycle - there are five categories: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards.
- When the # of individuals adopting a new idea is plotted on a cumulative frequency basis over time the distribution is an S-shaped curve. Only a few individuals adopt at first (the innovators). The diffusion curve begins to climb, as more and more individuals adopt in each succeeding time period. Eventually, the trajectory levels off, as fewer and fewer individuals remain who have not yet adopted the innovation.
- The S-shaped diffusion curve “takes off” at about 10 to 20 percent adoption, when interpersonal networks become activated so that a critical mass of adopters begin using an innovation
The rate of adoption is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of a social system.
A social system is a set of interrelated units engaged in joint problem solving to accomplish a common goal. Their structure can facilitate or impede the diffusion of innovations in the system. The diffusion of innovations is a very social process that involves interpersonal communication relationships, even more than a technical matter.
- Social norms: How compatible an innovation is with the values, beliefs, and past experiences of individuals in the social system is important.
- How adopters view a change agent affects their willingness to adopt new ideas. More effective communication occurs with those who are more similar. If a change agent is more technically competent that difference could lead to ineffective communication as the two individuals do not speak the same language.
- The most innovative member of a system is very often perceived as a deviant from the social system and is accorded a status of low credibility by the average members of the system.
- Opinion leadership is the degree to which an individual is able to influence other individuals’ attitudes - it is earned and maintained by the individual’s technical competence, social accessibility, and conformity to the system’s norms. They often have a unique and influential position in their system’s communication structure: at the centre of interpersonal communication networks.
- Unfortunately, those individuals who most need the help provided by the change agent are least likely to accept it.
- Innovation-decisions can be optional, collective or authority-led / top-down. The fastest rate of adoption of innovations stems from authority decisions.
- Innovation-decisions can be contingent on prior decisions.
- The innovation-decision period is the length of time required to pass through the innovation-decision process. Some people require many years to adopt an innovation - others move rapidly from knowledge to implementation
“It is as unthinkable to study diffusion without some knowledge of the social structures in which potential adopters are located as it is to study blood circulation without adequate knowledge of the veins and arteries.” Katz (1961)
Quick Links
Eigenquestions - Framing the Problem and Asking the Right Question · Article
Doshi on Good Product Managers vs Great Product Managers · Thread
An Alternative to OKRs · Article
The Piranha Problem · Paper
The Quiet Art of Attention · Article
Learn About Arrays · Article
A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables · Frank M. Bass · 1969
"A growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers. A behavioural rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behaviour. The model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data. A long-range forecast is developed for the sales of colour television sets."
The Bass Diffusion Model is a vital tool for product managers, offering insights into how and when a product will be adopted by the market. Its predictions enable:
- Effective marketing strategies, targeting the right customers at the right time.
- Informed resource planning based on sales peaks and market saturation.
- Risk mitigation during new product launches.
- Strategic product lifecycle management, ensuring the product evolves as adoption slows.
By incorporating the Bass Diffusion Model, product managers can make data-driven decisions, optimise marketing efforts, and align their strategies with consumer behaviour patterns, ultimately leading to more successful product launches and sustained growth.
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Book Highlights
This leads me to one of the biggest mistakes people make, and that’s actually believing their minimal viable solution will be successful. We’re Wrong Most of the Time I’m as guilty as the next guy in believing my great ideas will be successful. The truth is that in the past I released lots of solutions I thought would be wildly successful, but they just weren’t. Jeff Patton · User Story Mapping
Our first principle of working with AI is to always invite it to the table. Ethan Mollick · Co-Intelligence
The features of our product and the value they provide are only unique, interesting and valuable when a customer perceives them in relation to alternatives. April Dunford · Obviously Awesome
Design Studio (and simple ideation, for that matter) is the opposite of what most folks, including me, often do: go with the first idea that seems like it’ll work. Jeff Patton · User Story Mapping
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Quotes & Tweets
You can always just decide that you’re so back. Unknown
Action creates inspiration. Shane Parrish
If you find yourself arguing that your company will win just because your product is better, you should staple this chart to your shirt. Kyle Harrison
